In these relatively wide-open NFL playoffs, where everybody has flaws that could get them eliminated the first time they step on the field, the Jaguars might actually have a Super Bowl run in them.
That’s not a misprint. Yes, the Jaguars have a puncher’s chance to get to Minneapolis. As turnover-prone as this offense has been the last two weeks, which is a postseason killer, you can never brush aside a defense that leads the league in passing yards allowed (169.9), and is second in takeaways (33) and quarterback sacks (55).
Throw in the fact the Jaguars drew the best possible wild-card opponent Sunday in the Buffalo Bills – avoiding the Los Angeles Chargers was a good thing – the AFC bracket unfolds pretty well for them. Even if it means going through two quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady with seven Super Bowl rings between them, having a stout defense tends to keep you in games against quality opponents.
Regardless of Doug Marrone’s belief that “every one of these [playoff] teams is dangerous,” sixth-seeded Buffalo (minus-57 point differential) and the No. 5 Tennessee Titans (minus-22) look like the only postseason participants who don’t have a deep playoff run in them.
At least the wild-card participants in the stronger NFC, the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, either have a quarterback, running game or fairly stout defense that can carry them on a big stage. All the AFC wild-cards have as a big-time weapon is Buffalo tailback LeSean McCoy, and it’s pure conjecture if the injured right ankle of the league’s fourth-leading rusher (1,138 yards) will be ready to go against the Jaguars.
While the Bills deserve massive credit for squeezing into the playoffs for the first time in 18 years, the fact remains Buffalo is pretty suspect outside of its running game. The Bills are in the bottom quarter of the NFL in total offense, passing, total defense, run defense and QB sacks.
On paper, the Jaguars couldn’t have hand-picked a better opponent to try and win its first home playoff game since 1999. That said, a team with only six starters having playoff experience must still perform when the national spotlight truly shines on them for the first time in a decade. While Jalen Ramsey would surely debate this point, the Jaguars still have a prove-it element attached to them when it comes to playing in January.
As for the rest of the playoff picture, would you honestly feel even mildly comfortable wagering a large sum of money on anybody to win it all? OK, maybe the Patriots, but that defense has a so-so pass rush and often gives up yardage in big chunks. And you have to wonder if the absence of Brady’s security blanket, sidelined receiver Julian Edelman, will finally bite them in a potential Steelers’ rematch or sooner.
Look around, there are questions lurking for everyone at this postseason party. Can the top-seeded NFC team, the Philadelphia Eagles, trust replacement quarterback Nick Foles to take them the distance? How safe is the path for Philly, the No. 2 Minnesota Vikings or third-seeded Los Angeles Rams when lethal QBs Drew Brees and Matt Ryan loom as potential division-round opponents?
On the AFC side, which Kansas City Chiefs team will show up? What is the health status of the NFL’s best receiver, Antonio Brown, if the Steelers have to line up against the Jaguars?
Sure, there’s lots of reasons to question the Jaguars’ playoff chances based on what we’ve seen from Blake Bortles the last two weeks. But as Marrone correctly points out: “If you can play good defense and you can run the football and play well on special teams, you are always going to have a chance [to win].”
The Jaguars have relied on that formula and it’s effectively carried them for most of this season. Now they’ve got a favorable matchup at sold-out EverBank Field against Marrone’s old team to open the playoffs.
It’s now up to the Jaguars to prove they belong in a tournament where, truthfully, Bill Belichick probably wishes he had their defense.
Gene.frenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540